好文分享：https://danwang.co/2025-letter/

没有什么比在周日下午网上冲浪时读到一篇有意思的文章更快乐了。

提示：文章挺长，并且有少部分键政内容，可以直接跳过。

这篇文章讲的内容很多，我无法给出简单的 TLDR 内容，仅摘录几段有意思的分享：

Chinese tech achievements that were apparent in 2025 were the fruits of investments made a decade ago. Given that China continues to invest massively in technology, I expect we’ll see yet more tech successes for another decade to come. Alexander Grothendieck used an analogy of a walnut to describe different approaches to mathematics, which might also apply to technology development. Some mathematicians crack their problems by finding the right spot to insert a chisel before making a clean strike. Grothendieck described his own approach as coming up with general solutions, as if he were immersing the walnut in a bath for such a long time that mere hand pressure would be enough to open it. The US comes up with exquisite and expensive solutions to its technology problems. China’s industrial ecosystem is more like a rising sea, softening many nuts at once.

2025 年中国科技取得的成就，是十年前投资的成果。鉴于中国持续在科技领域投入巨资，我预计未来十年我们将看到更多科技领域的成功。亚历山大·格罗滕迪克曾用核桃作比喻来描述不同的数学方法，这或许也适用于科技发展。一些数学家通过找到合适的凿子插入点，然后精准地敲击核桃来解决问题。格罗滕迪克则将自己的方法描述为提出通用解决方案，就像把核桃浸泡在浴缸里足够长的时间，最终只需轻轻一按就能打开。美国针对其技术问题提出了精妙而昂贵的解决方案。而中国的产业生态系统更像是不断上涨的海水，同时软化了许多核桃。

Probably the most underrated part of the Chinese system is the ferocity of market competition. It’s excusable not to see that, given that the party espouses so much Marxism. I would argue that China embodies both greater capitalist competition and greater capitalist excess than America does today. Part of the reason that China’s stock market trends sideways is that everyone’s profits are competed away. Big Tech might enjoy the monopolistic success smiled upon by Peter Thiel, coming almost to genteel agreements not to tread too hard upon each other’s business lines. Chinese firms have to fight it out in a rough-and-tumble environment, expanding all the time into each other’s core businesses, taking Jeff “your margin is my opportunity” Bezos with seriousness.

中国体制中最被低估的部分或许就是市场竞争的残酷性。考虑到中共奉行如此多的马克思主义，人们忽视这一点也情有可原。我认为，中国比当今的美国更能体现资本主义的竞争和更严重的资本主义过度扩张。中国股市横盘整理的部分原因在于，所有人的利润都在激烈的竞争中被蚕食殆尽。大型科技公司或许能享受彼得·蒂尔所推崇的垄断成功，彼此之间甚至达成某种温文尔雅的协议，互不干涉。而中国企业则必须在残酷的竞争环境中奋力拼搏，不断向对方的核心业务领域扩张，认真对待杰夫·贝佐斯那句“你的利润就是我的机会”的宣言。

(我绝对不是在水长文 doge